The strengthening of the US dollar, coupled with optimistic sentiment over tariff negotiations, weighed on silver, causing it to fluctuate downward and experience a significant correction [SMM Weekly Review of Silver Market]

From a macro perspective, trade optimism briefly weakened silver's safe-haven appeal early in the week, prompting bulls to exit the precious metal and causing overseas silver prices to temporarily fall below $38/oz. Although the US Fed's mid-week rate decision remained unchanged, the US dollar's movement and real interest rate environment kept silver in a bearish macro atmosphere. During the short-term price correction, downstream consumption showed signs of improvement, with demand from the new energy and PV industries providing support for silver prices. Meanwhile, COMEX silver futures' open interest remained at historically high levels, reflecting institutional investors' sustained medium and long-term demand for silver. Therefore, in the medium to long term, precious metal bulls' enthusiasm has not waned, and short-term traders still need to closely monitor the potential impact of geopolitical dynamics and US dollar movements on silver prices.

[Economic Data] Bearish:

US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 25 rose by 7.698 million barrels (previous: -3.169 million, expected: -1.288 million)

US July ADP employment increased by 104,000 (previous: -23,000, expected: 75,000)

Bullish:

US June JOLTs job openings stood at 7.437 million (previous: 7.712 million, expected: 7.5 million)

[Spot Market]

In the silver spot market, downstream consumption showed improvement compared to last week, with end-users' purchasing enthusiasm boosted by lower prices. In Shanghai, spot silver ingots were quoted at a TD premium of 2-3 yuan/kg or at a discount of 25-26 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2510 contract. Large producers' spot silver ingots were quoted at a TD premium of 3-4 yuan/kg. Early in the week, some suppliers offered spot silver ingots at a discount of 30 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2510 contract or at a slight discount to TD prices due to capital repatriation needs. As the selling pressure eased, market transactions gradually returned to slight TD premium levels, and the spread between premiums and discounts narrowed. Approaching month-end, circulating spot supplies gradually decreased, with some suppliers choosing to close their books or pre-sell next week's cargo pick-up prices after depleting inventories, while downstream enterprises showed active inquiries and buying-the-dip behavior. For PV silver paste: this week's average reference prices were 5,812-6,086 yuan/kg for solar cell rear-side silver paste, 8,753-9,164 yuan/kg for solar cell front-side finger, and 8,703-9,114 yuan/kg for solar cell front-side busbar.